© Sailing Weather Service
To understand the cycle, let’s say that the first day of racing finds a recently passed cold front stationary or dying south of the racing area. At the same time, a high pressure center would likely be building in the northern Plains and sweeping toward the southeastern U.S. coastline. This weather pattern often brings cool temperatures and a cloudy sky to Key West. Winds would be northerly with gusty and shifty conditions. The wind speed will normally start the day fresh, say 15 to 20 knots and maybe more, but decrease with time.
On the next day of the cycle, the high would move to the southeastern U.S., positioned almost directly north of Florida. The high in this position weakens the northerly wind, veering it to the northeast. The breeze can be gusty and shifty, but there is a clear easing trend. Big directional swings to the right are often possible, especially during the afternoon.
Days 3 and 4 find the high lingering over the Southeastern U.S and spreading east off the Georgia or northeast Florida coast into the Atlantic. The wind continues veering to the east and sometimes southeast with speeds slowly starting to increase, especially on Day 4. These are the most consistent sailing days, with smaller, oscillating shifts. Temperatures are often seasonable and humidity increases with few clouds in the sky.
Toward the end of this period and moving into Day 5, the high moves off the Southeastern U.S. coast. The wind veers further into the southeast bringing warmer and more humid air. Trade wind cumulus clouds containing isolated showers may pass through the course causing larger oscillations and shifts.
By the end of the cycle, the high moves farther away from Florida to the east. The cycle begins to repeat itself with another cold front possibly threatening Key West from the northern Gulf. Ahead of cold fronts, watch for winds veering farther right and increasing in strength. The weather becomes less stable and there is even the possibility of some squalls and thunderstorms in this pattern.
Keep in mind that there are always exceptions to this cycle and the timing can change. However, the accompanying wind rose graphic shows how this weather cycle relates to historic wind conditions. The wind rose shows historic wind speed and direction frequency near the racing areas during the race period. Notice the N/NNE wind often found during days 1-2 of the cycle is more frequently fresh to strong. Winds tend to moderate when veering to the NE on day 2. Increasingly fresh speeds are apparent as the wind frequently veers from the ENE to ESE on days 3-5. The cycle often repeats after day 5 so the moderate to fresh SE/S winds on a cycle that extends to days 6-7 are less frequent.
If you are planning to race in Key West, you better start watching the weather now! You may be able to see this cycle and become more familiar with it before the race. Also, any unusual weather patterns may give you some hints on how things can vary from the typical weather pattern.
Monitoring the Key West weather is easy in the North Sails Weather Center - simply visit www.na.northsails.com and navigate to the North Sails Weather Center. Look specifically at the current and forecast surface weather maps in the weather charts section of the North Sails Blue Weather Center. You can use these charts to see the movement of systems around the region and where you are in the cycle outlined above. Also, use the North Sails Blue Weather Center to monitor wind conditions reported near the race course area. Mostly importantly, sign up for complimentary race weather outlooks and race day forecasts issued by the North Sails Blue Weather Center.
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