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Sailing Weather Service Forecast
Sponsored by North Sails & Southern Spars
San Diego NOOD
Issued 0640 LT 19 March 2010

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES: No official warnings or advisories are currently in effect. However, it is always important to monitor NOAA All Hazards Radio on your VHF for the latest official warnings and advisories from The National Weather Service. 

FEEDBACK: Sailing Weather Service and North Sails encourage feedback. A few observations from the racecourse can greatly improve our understanding of the day’s weather. When able, please send us daily weather notes so we can improve YOUR forecast at: feedback@sailwx.com. Thanks!

TODAY’S SYNOPSIS: The 2010 San Diego NOOD will get off to a good start with a light-moderate onshore thermal breeze building during the midday and persisting through the afternoon. This morning’s weather map is active. A coastal eddy circulation caused a light onshore flow yesterday into the early hours of this morning. The eddy dissipated during the past few hours as a trough passed through southern California. High pressure far to the north in southwestern Canada is now building into the western U.S. behind the trough.

The high pressure caused the recent development of a light offshore flow in San Diego. This 02-06 kt offshore flow generally from the NNE persists through mid morning (0900 LT) and then eases into a light and variable period during the late morning (0900-1030 LT). The patchy marine layer clouds burn off during the late morning and this allows a thermal breeze to develop (1030-1130 LT). The thermal fills to 05-10 kts from the W/WNW by noontime. Maximum wind speeds of 08-14 kts are likely in the early afternoon (1300-1500 LT). Speeds start to slowly ease during the mid afternoon.        

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Observations at 0630 LT near San Diego Bay indicate a NNE/NE wind of 01-04 kts. Since midnight the wind has generally trended from a S’ly flow caused by a coastal eddy to the light offshore flow that is now occurring. There is patchy marine layer clouds and fog in the region but partial clearing has occurred from San Diego to the north.  

FORECAST DISCUSSION: A light offshore flow generally from the N/NNE at 01-06 kts early this morning. Winds becoming very light and variable, possibly calm at times, during the mid morning (0900-1030 LT). Thermal breeze filling from the W/WNW late in the morning (1030-1130 LT) but may see occasional puffs from the thermal as early as 0930 LT. Thermal increasing to a maximum speed of 08-15 kts during the early afternoon (1300-1500 LT). In the waters near/south of Pt Loma gusts to the high teens (15-20 kts) are possible. Slight easing of the thermal breeze is likely during the mid afternoon (1500-1600 LT).

WEATHER: Patchy fog and marine layer clouds early this morning. Clearing and becoming mostly sunny during the mid/late morning. Marine clouds likely returning this evening. A temperature near 60 F this morning and only warming to the low 60s F on the Pacific waters, mid 60S F on San Diego Bay. 

SEAS: Wind driven surface waves less than 2 feet. In the Pacific waters, a 3-5 foot swell at a period of 13-15 seconds mixed from the WSW and S.

Detailed Wind Forecast for Today
Time   Wind Speed   Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT)   Mean Range   Mean Range
0900   03   01-06   015  350-045 ...light offshore flow early
1000   03   00-06   Variable        ...may see W/WNW puffs from thermal
1100   06   02-09   275  260-305 ...thermal breeze filling
1200   09   06-13   280  260-305
1300   11   08-14   285  265-310 
1400   12   08-15   290  270-315 ...max thermal wind speeds
1500   12   08-15   290  275-320 ...high teens gusts possible S of Pt Loma
1600   11   07-14   300  280-325
1700   10   06-13   310  290-335
 
HEDGE: Forecast Confidence: AVERAGE.
1) Weather model consensus is good this morning. All the models indicate the development of a thermal breeze but there are some differences in timing and strength. Also, the weather pattern favors a thermal breeze occurring.
 
2) The models show the thermal breeze developing anytime between 0900-1200 LT with a consensus near 1100 LT. Prior to the thermal breeze developing look for the offshore flowing gradient wind to ease and a light/variable period to occur. This should coincide with any marine layer clouds burning off or receding offshore. You may notice slight puffs from the thermal by 0900-1000 and then the breeze should fill by 1100 LT.

3) The thermal breeze may wrap and decelerate slightly into San Diego Bay from the Pacific waters near/south of Pt. Loma. This means the strongest and most veered (right shifted) wind is likely in the Pacific waters with lighter and backed (left shifted) flow in San Diego Bay. North of Point Loma, near Mission Bay, expect winds closer to the left side and lower end of the forecast direction and speed ranges.

4) Pay attention to the timing of thermal breeze development. You can expect slightly stronger wind speeds (10-18 kts) if the thermal develops early (0900 LT). If the thermal takes until 1200 LT to really get going then lower wind speeds (05-10 kts) are likely.   

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OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW (20 MARCH 2010): A large center of surface high pressure positions itself over the Intermountain west while an upper level ridge builds over the west coast. An offshore flowing gradient wind persists and may be slightly stronger than today. This could slightly delay the development of the thermal breeze and reduce its strength compared to today. Still, expect the thermal to develop during the late morning and reach a maximum strength of 07-14 kts from the W/WNW during the early afternoon. 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Tomorrow:
Time Wind Speed  Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT)  Mean Range  Mean Range
1000   04  01-07  085  055-105 ...offshore flow fading
1200   07  05-10  285  265-310 ...thermal breeze building
1400   10  08-13  290  270-315 ...max thermal breeze
1600   09  07-13  295  275-320

SEAS: Wind driven surface waves of 2 feet or less. In the Pacific waters, a 2-4 foot swell at a period of 13-15 seconds mixed from the WSW and S.

WEATHER:  Patchy morning fog and marine clouds to mostly sunny skies and a high in the mid 60s F. 

Forecast prepared by Sailing Weather Service, LLC
Learn more at www.sailwx.com and www.windpower.sailwx.com


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Sailing Weather Service Forecast
Sponsored by North Sails & Southern Spars
2010 Miami Grand Prix – Race Day Forecast
Issued 0645 LT 07 March 2010

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY is still in effect through 1300 LT today for rough seas. These rough seas should be mainly east of the race area but still exercise caution. Please monitor NOAA All Hazards Radio on your VHF for the latest official warnings and advisories from The National Weather Service. 

FEEDBACK: Sailing Weather Service and North Sails encourage feedback. Even a few observations from the racecourse can greatly clear up our understanding of the day’s weather. When able, please send us daily weather notes so we can improve YOUR forecast at: feedback@sailwx.com. Thanks!

SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER WEBSITE: In addition to this forecast, please visit northsails.sailwx.com. This website features Sailing Weather Service high resolution wind model graphics and GRIBS for south Florida along with local observation. There is also a version enabled for mobile devices at wapnorthsails.sailwx.com.

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY: The view of yesterday again relies on automated observations near the racing area and a few general observations from the race day summary. It appears that conditions were close to those forecast. The automated observations show the expected right shift from the NNW to N/NNE during the morning to midday as an upper level trough crossed Florida. The right shift was also associated with a decline in mean wind speed from the mid to lower teens. The race summary confirmed a third day of shifty conditions, likely caused by a right shifted breeze from offshore mixing with a left shifted breeze from onshore. 

SYNOPSIS: Chilly temperatures aside, the weather has certainly cooperated the past several days. The fine weather continues on this final race day courtesy of the large high pressure center still sprawled out across the eastern U.S. The high is now centered over the southeastern U.S. where it remains today. The strong ocean storm that persisted near Newfoundland, Canada has finally moved further into the Atlantic but a broad area of lower pressure still exists throughout much of the western Atlantic. This gradient between the large high and lower pressure is the driving force behind today’s winds. However, for the 4th time in as many days there is an upper level trough tracking across Florida this morning.

The trough crossing Florida is stronger and further south than those the past few days so it has a greater impact on the wind. Winds are backing and increasing in speed early this morning as the trough approaches Miami. This is most noticeable over the coastal waters where the surface wind is more connect with the upper level wind compared to over Miami where overnight cooling has decoupled the surface and upper level winds. Winds start to decrease and trend right during the late morning/midday (1000-1300) as the trough moves east of Miami. Expect a N wind trending to the NNE/NE and speeds easing from 15-16 kts to 11-13 kts. The right trend and easing slow during the afternoon with winds from the NE at 10-12 kts. Expect shifty conditions throughout the day as air from onshore and offshore mixes in the racing area. 

CURRENT CONDITIONS: 0630 LT observations indicate a N’ly (340-350) wind of 15-16 kts near the racing area. East of the racing area the flow is slightly right and a few kts stronger. Meanwhile, the flow over the city and in the harbor is further left, from the NNW, and a lighter 08-13 kts. Increasing speeds and slight backing the past few hours are associated with the approaching upper level trough. Skies are mainly clear except for occasional high clouds associated with the trough and there are cumulus offshore over the Gulf Stream. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: Starting out at 0900 LT with a N’ly wind near 15 kts. Trending, or even shifting, quickly right to the NNE/NE with moderate easing to 11-13 kts from 1000-1300 LT. Right trend and easing slow during the afternoon (1300-1700) with the flow becoming NE’ly near 10 kts as patchy, unfilled, conditions possibly develop. Expect shifty conditions the entire day, but especially in the morning, likely causing left shifted lulls and right shifted puffs. 

WEATHER: Chamber of commerce conditions again today with mostly sunny skies. Some high clouds associated with the upper level trough are likely from morning into early afternoon. Again expect cumulus clouds offshore over the Gulf Stream and scattered cumulus developing over the city by midday. A slightly warmer start early this morning with the temperature in the low 50s F (11 C) and warming to a milder high near 70 F (21 C).

SEAS: The western wall of the Gulf Stream is approximately 16 nm ESE of Fowey Rocks. Moderately choppy with surface waves of 2-4 feet (0.5-1.25m) in the vicinity of the racing area. Further offshore near the Gulf Stream rougher 5-7 foot (1.5-2.0m) seas.  

TIDAL (Miami Harbor Entrance)
0725 LT low, flood begins
1325 LT high, ebb begins
1950 LT low, flood begins

Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time  Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT)  Mean Range  Mean Range
0900   15  13-18  355  345-020 ...shifty conditions especially in AM
1000   15  12-18  360  350-030 ...strongest wind early
1100   14  11-17  015  355-045 ...quick right trend late morning/midday
1200   12  10-16  025  005-050 ...easing wind speed
1300   11  09-16  030  010-055
1400   10  08-14  035  010-060 ... slowing right trend & easing
1500   10  08-14  040  015-065 
1600   09  07-13  045  020-065
1700   09  07-13  045  020-065

HEDGE:  Forecast Confidence: AVERAGE.
1) The forecast models are in strong agreement on the general idea of a quick right trend and easing followed by a slowing right trend and a little more easing. However, there is some disagreement on the timing and extent of these changes.

2) The more aggressive models indicate a right shift from the N to NE/ENE and speeds easing to 10 kts or less from 0900-1200. The less aggressive models show a more gradual right trend from the N to NNE/NE and speeds remaining in the mid teens from 0900-1400. This forecast and the wind table lean slightly in favor of the more aggressive solution because these models are more in line with actual conditions early this morning.

3) Shifty conditions are expected through the day. However, the shiftiest conditions are liable when the wind is further left, so during this morning when the mean flow is N’ly. This is because a N’ly flow promotes left shifted air moving off the shoreline mixing with right shifted air coming from offshore. The right shifted flow should win out the more the mean wind trends right and this is likely to decrease the intensity of shifts during the afternoon.

4) Despite the actual mean wind direction, continue to expect slightly left shifted flow near the coastline and right shifted flow further offshore. However, this may be hard to notice amid the short-term wind shifts.

5) Its again unlikely but still possible that a good convergence zone between left and right shifted wind causes a defined convergence cloud line. If you see a well defined cloud line then looking upwind expect right shifted wind on the right side of the cloud line and left shifted wind on the left side. Lighter wind speeds are likely under the cloud line.   

Forecast prepared by Sailing Weather Service, LLC
Learn more at www.sailwx.com and www.windpower.sailwx.com

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Sailing Weather Service Forecast
Sponsored by North Sails & Southern Spars
2010 Miami Grand Prix – Race Day Forecast
Issued 0700 LT 06 March 2010

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY is currently in effect through 1300 LT Sunday for rough seas. These rough seas should be mainly east of the race area but still exercise caution. Please monitor NOAA All Hazards Radio on your VHF for the latest official warnings and advisories from The National Weather Service. 

FEEDBACK: Sailing Weather Service and North Sails encourage feedback. Even a few observations from the racecourse can greatly clear up our understanding of the day’s weather. When able, please send us daily weather notes so we can improve YOUR forecast at: feedback@sailwx.com. Thanks!

SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER WEBSITE: In addition to this forecast, please visit northsails.sailwx.com. This website features Sailing Weather Service high resolution wind model graphics and GRIBS for south Florida along with local observation. There is also a version enabled for mobile devices at wapnorthsails.sailwx.com.

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY: Aside from a few very general online summaries of the race day the only available conditions come from automated weather observing stations. Unfortunately, the automated observations do not show short-term shifts but report a mean wind over a period of time. This mean wind direction was very inline with the forecast, trending from 340-345 at 1000 to 325-330 by 1400 and back to 340 at 1600. Conditions were shifty according to reports so you probably experienced 20-30 degree swings either side of this mean. The shifty conditions were likely the result of lighter left shifted air flowing off the land mixing with stronger right shifted air coming from offshore. The reported mean wind speeds were mostly in line with the forecast. However, I imagine that the left shifts probably brought lulls of 10 kts or less while the right shifts were associated with puffs to the mid/high teens. I would be interested to know so remember you can always send your view of the race day to feedback@sailwx.com.

SYNOPSIS: Fine weather rolls on today since the weather map has changed very little since yesterday. High pressure is still sprawled out over the eastern U.S. but remains centered near the Great Lakes. A strong ocean storm remains east of Newfoundland, Canada causing a broad area of lower pressure over the Atlantic waters adjacent to the U.S. east coast. This picture only changes slightly today as the high drifts slowly into the Ohio Valley and the low finally begins tracking further into the Atlantic late in the day. The pressure gradient between these two features will continue to drive the wind.  However, an upper level trough is again on the map. The trough is currently across north Florida and forecast to move into the Atlantic early this morning.   
 
The approaching upper level trough is strengthening wind speeds to the mid/upper teens a short distance offshore of Miami early this morning. However, over land the surface wind decoupled from the upper level wind because of cooling so speeds are a lower 05-10 kts. In the race area, winds should average about 13-15 kts during the mid/late morning (0900-1200) but be prepared for shifty conditions as stronger right shifted air from offshore mixes with lighter left shifted air from the land. At the same time, there should be a larger scale right shift from a NNW flow to the N/NNE as the upper level trough moves east of Florida. Shifty conditions continue into the afternoon but may lessen slightly as a NNE wind eases to 10-12 kts.        

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Observations at 0630 indicate a NNW (335-340) wind of 15-16 kts in the vicinity of the race area. The wind a short distance offshore to the east is 15-20 kts from the N. Over the city, there is a lighter 05-10 kt left shifted wind from the NW/NNW. Overall there has been a slight left trend and speed increase the past several hours associated with the approaching upper level trough. Skies are mostly clear except for some thin high clouds and cumulus over the Gulf Stream.  

FORECAST DISCUSSION: Starting out in the mid morning (0800-1000) with a 15-20 kt N wind offshore of the race area and a 08-13 kt NW wind onshore of the race area. These flows mix in the racing area to cause a shifty NNW wind near 15 kts. Amid the short-term shifts a larger scale right trend to the N/NNE in the late morning (1000-1200) with speeds easing to the low teens (11-13 kts). Easing a little more, close to 10 kts, in the afternoon and slightly more left from the NNE. Continue to expect shifty conditions through the day with left shifted lulls and right shifted puffs likely.  

WEATHER: The record low of 44 F was tied yesterday morning and this morning is not much warmer with the temperature starting out near 50 F (10 C). Warming a little more than yesterday with a high in the upper 60s F (20 C). Skies remain mostly bright and sunny. A few high clouds associated with the upper level trough this morning. Also, scattered cumulus may occur over the Gulf Stream the entire day and city in the afternoon.
 
SEAS: The western wall of the Gulf Stream is approximately 16 nm SE of Fowey Rocks. 1-3 foot (0.25-1.0m) surface waves are expected in the vicinity of the race area with seas increasing to 5-7 feet (1.5-2.0m) near the western wall of the Gulf Stream.

TIDAL (Miami Harbor Entrance)
1225 LT high, ebb begins
1850 LT low, flood begins

Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time  Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT)  Mean Range  Mean Range
0900   15  13-18  340  325-005 ...strongest wind likely early
1000   14  12-18  345  330-010 ...gusts 20-23 kts possible early
1100   13  11-17  355  335-020 ...quick right shift 
1200   12  10-16  005  340-030 ...easing wind speeds
1300   12  10-16  010  345-035 ...shifty conditions persist into PM
1400   11  09-15  015  350-040 ...left shifted lulls, right shifted puffs
1500   11  09-15  015  350-040 
1600   10  08-14  010  345-035 ...may start trending left late
1700   10  08-14  005  340-030

HEDGE:  Forecast Confidence: AVERAGE.
1) Forecast models are again in strong agreement because the large-scale features continue to dictate the general conditions. All the models show a right shift from the NNW to N/NNE this morning followed by easing wind speeds. However, the models disagree slightly on the timing and extent.

2) Some models show a more aggressive right shift and easing than indicated in the wind table. If this occurs, look for the wind shifting quickly to the NNE/NE during the mid late morning (0900-1200) and easing to near 10 kts. Shifty conditions are still likely but the mean wind direction will be further right than indicated in the wind table.

3) The models cannot resolve the small scale and short term wind shifts you experience on the racecourse but shifty conditions are likely again today. The shifts should occur as lighter left shifted air coming off the shoreline mixes with stronger right shifted air coming from further offshore. This likely means that stronger wind speeds are associated with right shifts and lighter wind speeds are associated with left shifts.
 
4) Shifty conditions may lessen slightly over time as the temperature warms and the wind direction trends right. In fact, a likely rule is that conditions become less shifty the more the mean wind direction trends right. 
 
5) In general, continue to look for slightly left shifted lighter wind closer to the shoreline (Fisher Island, Virginia Key, Key Biscayne) and in the harbor. Expect slightly stronger, right shifted, wind further offshore. The flow may also tend to be more right over the southern portion of the racing area closer to the opening of Biscayne Bay.  

6) Its unlikely, but if a good convergence zone between right shifted and left shifted winds sets up it could be denoted by a cloud line. Looking upwind the right shifted winds would be on the right side of the cloud line and the left shifted winds on the left side. Wind speeds would likely decrease under the cloud line.

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OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY (07 March 2010)
SYNOPSIS: High pressure remains the dominate feature on the weather map as it moves from the Ohio Valley to the southeast U.S. A stronger and further south upper level trough is forecast to pass over Florida during the morning. NNW/N winds in the mid teens are expected ahead of the trough through mid morning. A quick shift to the NNE/NE, possibly ENE, with speeds easing to the low teens occurs late morning/midday. Speeds may lower to near 10 kts from the NE/ENE in the afternoon.   

Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time  Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT)  Mean Range  Mean Range
1000   15  13-18  345  330-010 ...strongest wind early
1200   13  11-17  020  000-045 ...quick right shift
1400   12  10-16  030  005-055 ...easing wind speeds
1600   10  08-14  035  010-060

SEAS: Moderately choppy at 2-4 feet (0.5-1.25m) in the vicinity of the racing area.  

TIDAL (Miami Harbor Entrance)
0725 LT low, flood begins
1325 LT high, ebb begins
1950 LT low, flood begins

WEATHER: Again starting out chilly but warming to near 70 F (21 C) Remaining bright and sunny with few, if any, clouds in the sky. 

Forecast prepared by Sailing Weather Service, LLC
Learn more at www.sailwx.com and www.windpower.sailwx.com

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Sailing Weather Service Forecast
Sponsored by North Sails & Southern Spars
2010 Miami Grand Prix – Race Day Forecast
Issued 0645 LT 05 March 2010

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES: No warnings or advisories are currently in effect. However, please monitor NOAA All Hazards Radio on your VHF for the latest official warnings and advisories from The National Weather Service. 

FEEDBACK: Sailing Weather Service and North Sails encourage feedback. Even a few observations from the racecourse can greatly clear up our understanding of the day’s weather. When able, please send us daily weather notes so we can improve YOUR forecast at: feedback@sailwx.com. Thanks!

SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER WEBSITE: In addition to this forecast, please visit northsails.sailwx.com. This website features Sailing Weather Service high resolution wind model graphics and GRIBS for south Florida along with local observation. There is also a version enabled for mobile devices at wapnorthsails.sailwx.com.

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY: There were few reports from the racing area but those received indicate good forecast performance. Observations from surrounding locations also support this view. Remember you can always send your view of the race day to feedback@sailwx.com. Wind speed increased during the morning to 12-15 kts. This was inside the forecast range but slightly below the forecast mean of 14-15 kts. Speeds appear to have reached about 15-16 kts during the midday and remained similar through the afternoon, which was mostly in line with the forecast. The small left trend through the NW occurred but was even slighter than expect with winds near 325 early and 305-310 in the afternoon.    

SYNOPSIS: A second fine day of weather is at hand. The weather map is dominated by high pressure across the eastern U.S. The high is centered near the Great Lakes but extends from the Province of Ontario Canada to the Gulf of Mexico and to the U.S. east coast. The high only moves slightly today, re-centering near the Ohio Valley by late afternoon. Meanwhile, low pressure is located southeast of Newfoundland, Canada. This is a large and very strong ocean storm so it is causing a broad area of lower pressure in the western Atlantic adjacent to the U.S. east coast. The pressure in this region rises slowly today as the high pressure center extends into Atlantic waters. Also on the map is another upper level trough currently across Georgia but forecast to move southeast to northern Florida.      

The pressure gradient across south Florida is currently similar to yesterday. Overnight decoupling of the surface wind causes slightly lower wind speeds early this morning, especially over/near land, but speeds should recover to 10-15 kts by mid morning. The gradient relaxes slightly during the afternoon as the area of Atlantic low pressure moves further offshore and higher pressure builds slowly over Florida. Winds only ease a little, to near 10 kts, but this should be noticeable. The orientation of the gradient changes little and this would argue for a NNW flow through the day. However, the upper level trough approaching northern Florida may back the wind ever so slightly this afternoon.       

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Observations at 0630 LT indicate a NNW of 14-16 kts in the waters close to the racing area. The wind is a lighter 05-10 kts and mostly backed to the NW/WNW over the city and in the harbor. Similar condition have occurred since midnight. Skies are mainly clear but occasionally appear a bit hazy from some thin high clouds and there are scattered cumulus offshore.
 
FORECAST DISCUSSION: A second day of only slight changes in wind direction and speed. NNW wind of 10-15 kts in the mid/late morning (0900-1100). However, expect lighter and more backed flow close to the shoreline and in the harbor, especially early. Speeds easing to the low teens during the midday and then near 10 kts during the afternoon. The wind may become a little patchy and locally unfilled as speeds ease, especially closer to the shoreline. Possibly trending left by only a couple of degrees, so basically remaining NNW/NW, but would not be surprised to see little, if any, discernible trend. Speeds likely start recovering into the low teens during the late afternoon (1600-1700) with a slight right trend commencing.   

WEATHER: Feeling like a frostbite series this morning with the temperature of 45 F (07 C) at 0600 LT...only 1 F above the record low of 44 that has stood since 1930!  Again only warming to a high in the mid 60s F (19 C). Skies similar to yesterday so expect lots of sunshine, with only occasional thin high clouds and scattered cumulus, mostly over the Gulf Stream this morning and city this afternoon.
 
SEAS: The western wall of the Gulf Stream is approximately 16 nm ESE of Fowey Rocks. 3-5 foot (1.0-1.50m) surface waves from the shoreline to western wall of the Gulf Stream, slightly increased seas near/in the Gulf Stream.

TIDAL (Miami Harbor Entrance)
1135 LT high, ebb begins
1755 LT low, flood begins

Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time  Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT)  Mean Range  Mean Range
0900   13  10-16  340  320-360 ...lighter/backed in harbor than racing area
1000   12  10-15  340  315-360 ...strongest wind likely early
1100   12  09-15  335  315-355
1200   11  09-14  335  310-355 ...very slight left trend possible
1300   11  09-14  330  305-355
1400   10  08-14  335  310-355 ...may become a bit patchy/unfilled
1500   09  07-13  335  310-355 ...lightest air mid-afternoon
1600   10  08-14  340  315-360
1700   10  08-14  340  315-360 ...recovering speeds late

HEDGE:  Forecast Confidence: AVERAGE.
1) The forecast remains fairly straightforward for a second day. The large-scale features continue to control the local conditions. As noted yesterday, this is a prime situation for good forecast model performance and the models are indeed in strong agreement this morning. All models show wind speeds easing this afternoon and little, if any, directional trend.

2) The extent of easing is slightly in question. Some models are a little more aggressive than others and below the mean shown in the wind table by a couple of kts. Speeds could ease to 05-10 kts by early this afternoon if this more aggressive easing occurs. If winds are lighter than forecast by late morning (1100LT) I would expect this trend to continue through the afternoon. 

3) This is the second time in as many days an upper level trough is rotating trough northern Florida. Yesterday the trough had little, if any, affect on the wind in south Florida. Today’s trough looks a little stronger and a little further south so it may have a greater impact. Winds typically back in the face of an approaching trough and this is why there is a very slight left trend noted in the forecast. However, it would not be surprising to see little, if any, movement to the left or even a very slight drift right, especially late in the day. In any event, it may be difficult to notice any slight trend that occurs today.

4) Unlike yesterday, the wind a short distance above the surface is not significantly stronger than the surface wind. This should mean less frequent and only slight gusts of 15-20 kts. Also, the larger rigs should experience very little wind shear from the masthead to deck.

5) Cloud streets (lines of clouds parallel to the wind flow) developed yesterday but were mostly east of the race area. This is likely to occur again today. However, cloud streets do manage to form over the race area expect slightly lower wind speeds under clouds compared to under clear sky. Also looking upwind the flow typically veers slightly under the right flank of a cloud street and backs near the left flank causing shifty conditions.        

6) Locally the wind should be slightly left shifted and slightly lighter closer to the shoreline (Fisher Island, Virginia Key, Key Biscayne) and in the harbor. It’s likely this will be more noticeable in the morning. Expect slightly stronger, right shifted, wind further offshore. 

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OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY (06 March 2010)
SYNOPSIS: High pressure continues to dominate the weather map of the eastern U.S. The pressure gradient and winds may re-strengthen overnight and into Saturday morning as the high moves slightly closer to Florida. Expect this to cause about 15 kts of wind from the N. The gradient and wind speeds ease during the afternoon when the high becomes stationary near the Virginias. Speeds lower to about 10 kts and veer to the NNE as this occurs. 

Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time  Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT)  Mean Range  Mean Range
1000   14  13-18  350  335-010 ...best breeze early
1200   13  11-17  000  345-020 ...may be gusty to 20-23 kts in AM
1400   12  10-16  010  350-030 ...trending right through the day
1600   10  08-14  015  355-035 ...lightest speeds late

SEAS: Still moderately choppy at 3-5 feet (1.00-1.75m) from the coastline to the western wall of the Gulf Stream. 

TIDAL (Miami Harbor Entrance)
1225 LT high, ebb begins
1850 LT low, flood begins

WEATHER: Remaining bright and sunny. Still only scattered cumulus popping up, mostly over the Gulf Stream in the morning and coastline in the afternoon. Another cold morning with temperatures starting out in the upper 40s F (08 C) but warming a little more to a high near 70 F (21 C).

Forecast prepared by Sailing Weather Service, LLC
Learn more at www.sailwx.com and www.windpower.sailwx.com


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:::RE-SENDING TO FIX EARLIER TYPO IN TODAY'S WIND TABLE:::

Sailing Weather Service Forecast
Sponsored by North Sails & Southern Spars
2010 Miami Grand Prix – Race Day Forecast
Issued 0735 LT 04 March 2010

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY for hazardous seas is in effect until 0700 LT Friday. However, the National Weather Service also states that SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION because of the moderate to fresh wind speeds. Please monitor NOAA All Hazards Radio on your VHF for the latest official warnings and advisories from The National Weather Service. 

FEEDBACK: Sailing Weather Service and North Sails encourage feedback. Even a few observations from the racecourse can greatly clear up our understanding of the day’s weather. When able, please send us daily weather notes so we can improve YOUR forecast at: feedback@sailwx.com. Thanks!

SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER WEBSITE: In addition to this forecast, please visit northsails.sailwx.com. This website features Sailing Weather Service high resolution wind model graphics and GRIBS for south Florida along with local observation. There is also a version enabled for mobile devices at wapnorthsails.sailwx.com.

SYNOPSIS: The 2010 Miami Grand Prix will kick off with great weather conditions. This morning’s weather map shows a very strong center of low pressure to the east of Nantucket, MA. Meanwhile, a large swath of high pressure stretches from the Province of Ontario Canada, across the central U.S., to eastern Mexico. Today the low tracks northeast, to the south of Nova Scotia, Canada while the high builds east, extending from the Great Lakes to western Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, an upper level trough that currently extends from the Carolinas to northern Florida slowly tracks east off the southeast U.S. coastline.

A closer look at south Florida currently shows a moderately tight pressure gradient. The gradient is between the low pressure center east of New England and the large area of high pressure across the central U.S. The tightest portion of this gradient is currently near the U.S. east coast but will move slightly offshore as the pressure centers progress. This slight change means that winds likely remain 13-18 kt range the entire day. However, the wind a short distance above the surface is much stronger so fresh 20-25 kt gusts are possible today. The gradient generally directs a NW flow that backs very slightly as the low head towards Nova Scotia.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: At 0630 LT the wind near the racing area is from the NW at 14-16 kts. Speeds have decreased slightly the past few hours but the flow has generally remained from the NW. Much lighter 05-10 kt left shifted winds  are occurring over the city due to surface friction and overnight decoupling from the stronger upper level wind. Skies appear hazy due to some high clouds and some scattered cumulus appear offshore. 
 
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Only slight change in wind speed and direction today. Generally 13-18 kts through the day but likely closer to the high end of this range early and low end late. Wind flow near the NNW/NW this morning only trending slightly left to the NW by the afternoon. Gusty conditions with puffs to 20-25 kts that may become more prominent during the afternoon. However, only slightly shifty with gust direction close to the mean wind direction.     

WEATHER: A cool start with temperatures in the upper 40s F (09 C) and only warming to a high in the mid 60s F (18 C). Generally sunny skies but may see some very thin high clouds and some lower level cumulus. Cumulus may organize into more defined cloud streets.
 
SEAS: The western wall of the Gulf Stream is approximately 09 nm northeast of Fowey Rocks. Outside the harbor/bay to the western wall of the Gulf Stream expect 3-5 foot (1.0-1.50m) moderately choppy seas. Increased chop and 4-7 foot (1.25-2.0m) seas likely near/in the Gulf Stream. 

TIDAL (Miami Harbor Entrance)
1045 LT high, ebb begins
1705 LT low, flood begins

Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time  Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT)  Mean Range  Mean Range
0900   14  12-17  325  305-345 ...slightly lighter early, especially in harbor
1000   14  12-18  320  300-345
1100   15  13-18  315  295-340 ...strongest wind likely late morning
1200   15  13-19  310  290-335 ...20-25 kt gusts possible through day
1300   15  12-18  305  285-330 ...slight left trend likely into PM
1400   14  12-18  305  285-330 ...likely stronger if more right
1500   14  12-17  310  285-335
1600   13  11-17  310  290-335
1700   13  11-17  315  295-340

HEDGE:  Forecast Confidence: AVERAGE.
1) This forecast is fairly straightforward because the large-scale pressure centers largely control conditions. The forecast models typically perform well in this scenario and they are in strong agreement this morning. Forecast confidence would be above average if there was no upper level trough currently extending into northern FL. This trough is the one fly in the ointment because it could slightly affect conditions.

2) The trough currently extends across northern Florida and is forecast to move very slowly and slightly east into the Atlantic by this evening. Winds typically veer in the lee of a trough but this is not expect to occur in south FL because the trough is a good distance north of Miami and moving so slowly and slightly east. However, this may not be the case and the trough could have a greater influence, preventing the forecast backing or even causing a slight veering. Expect wind speeds to remain steady or even increase slightly if a veering trend is noted.       

3) Assuming all goes to plan, and there is no influence from the trough, there are a few models that indicate slightly more extensive easing this afternoon. Winds may ease to 10-15 kts and this would likely be accompanied by a more significant left trend to the WNW. 

4) As mentioned in the forecast, the upper level winds a short distance above the surface are quite strong, on the order of 25-35 kts at only 2,000-3,000 ft (600-900m). These stronger wind speeds are going to mix down to the surface as 20-25 kt gusts that may become more pronounced after late morning (1100LT). Fortunately, the direction of these upper level winds is mostly in line with the surface winds so don’t expect significant right or left shifted gusts. The larger rigs may notice a fair amount of wind shear from the deck to masthead because of this speed difference.

5) Locally the wind may be slightly left shifted and slightly lighter closer to the masses (Fisher Island, Virginia Key, Key Biscayne). Look for slightly stronger, right shifted, wind further offshore. 

6) You may notice cloud streets (lines of clouds parallel to the wind direction). Below the clouds you may see slightly lower wind speeds compared to under clear sky. Also, looking upwind the wind typically veers slightly under the right flank of a cloud street and backs near the left flank. This would cause shifty conditions. If cloud streets occur, they may tend to decrease with daytime heating.

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OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY (05 March 2010)
SYNOPSIS: High pressure consolidates near the central Great Lakes but still extends into the Gulf of Mexico and southeast U.S. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure offshore in the Atlantic is still strong enough to support 13-18 kts from the NNW in the morning. The gradient looks to relax slightly in the afternoon easing wind speeds to 10-15 kts with a little right trend. The upper level wind speeds look much closer to the surface wind speeds tomorrow so less gusty conditions are expected.  

Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time  Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT)  Mean Range  Mean Range
1000   14  13-18  330  310-350 ...strongest wind likely early
1200   13  11-17  335  315-355 ...only slight gusts to near 20 kts
1400   12  10-16  340  315-360 ...very slight right trend possible
1600   11  09-15  345  320-005

SEAS: Likely remaining 3-5 feet (1.00-1.75m) and moderately choppy from the coastline to wall of the Gulf Stream. 

TIDAL (Miami Harbor Entrance)
1135 LT high, ebb begins
1755 LT low, flood begins

WEATHER: Probably the coolest morning of the race week with temperatures starting off in the mid 40s F (08 C). Warming to another cool high in the upper 60s F (20 C). Lots of sunshine with some fair weather cumulus likely developing.

Forecast prepared by Sailing Weather Service, LLC
Learn more at www.sailwx.com and www.windpower.sailwx.com


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Sailing Weather Service Forecast
Sponsored by North Sails & Southern Spars
2010 Miami Grand Prix – Outlook Forecast
Issued 1430 LT 02 March 2010

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES: A GALE WARNING in currently in effect through 0700 LT Wednesday morning followed by a SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY through 1500 LT Wednesday afternoon. The SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY will likely be extended into Wednesday night if not Thursday morning. Remember, to please monitor NOAA All Hazards Radio on your VHF for the latest official warnings and advisories from The National Weather Service. 

FORECAST SCHEDULE: This is an outlook forecast. Race day forecasts will commence Thursday morning and continue through the event.  

FEEDBACK: Sailing Weather Service and North Sails encourage feedback. When able, please send us daily weather notes so we can improve YOUR forecast at: feedback@sailwx.com. Thanks!

SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER WEBSITE: In addition to this forecast, please visit northsails.sailwx.com. This website features Sailing Weather Service high resolution wind model graphics and GRIBS for south Florida along with local observation. There is also a version enabled for mobile devices at wapnorthsails.sailwx.com.

OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS: A terrific stretch of wind and weather conditions is shaping up for the 2010 Miami Grand Prix. Moderate winds in the mid teens, bright sunshine, and temperatures slightly cooler than normal look to occur each race day. This is a welcome departure from the significantly cooler and wetter than normal winter south Florida has experienced.

A strong center of low pressure tracked across northern Florida Tuesday afternoon swinging a cold front through the Miami area during the early afternoon. This is causing strong to near gale force winds over the Atlantic waters that should subsided a little overnight. Winds on Wednesday remain fresh to strong (18-25 kts) from the W/WNW due to a tight pressure gradient between low pressure east of Cape Hatteras, NC and high pressure stretched across the Midwest from Canada to Mexico.

A more sailable breeze is in store for the first day of racing on Thursday. The pressure gradient relaxes as the low pressure center tracks east of New England and high pressure stretches from the Great Lakes to Gulf of Mexico. Expect a moderate but puffy 13-18 kts from the NW. High pressure dominates the weather picture for the remaining race days as it slowly settles into the southeast U.S. On Friday, look for an initially gusty 15-20 kt NW wind easing to 13-18 kts while trending to the NNW. The breeze settles down to a less puffy 13-18 kts from the N/NNE on Saturday and NE for Sunday.          

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OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY (03 March 2010)
SYNOPSIS: Low pressure near Cape Hatteras, NC in the morning tracks east of the Chesapeake in the afternoon while high pressure extends across the Midwest from Canada to Mexico. A tight pressure gradient occurs across south Florida causing a WNW wind in the upper teens during the morning. An upper level trough crosses the Florida Peninsula in the afternoon. This may increase wind speeds to 20-25 kts with a slight backing towards the W. Through the day expect strong 25-35 kt gusts. 

Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time  Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT)  Mean Range  Mean Range
1000   18  16-22   295  275-315 ...gusts 25-35 kts today
1200   19  17-23   295  270-310 
1400   21  18-25   285  265-305 ...speeds may increase slightly in PM
1600   21  18-25   290  270-310

SEAS: The western wall of the Gulf Stream is approximately 4 nm east of Fowey Rocks. Very choppy 5-7 foot (1.5-2.25m) seas are expected from the shoreline to the western wall of the Gulf Stream.

TIDAL (Miami Harbor Entrance)
1000 LT high, ebb begins
1615 LT low, flood begins

WEATHER: A cool start with temperatures in the mid 50s F (12 C) and warming to a seasonably cool high in the upper 60s F (20 C). Expect sunshine filtered by thin high clouds and scattered “fair weather” cumulus, especially  developing over land. 
 
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OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY (04 March 2010)
SYNOPSIS: Strong low pressure tracks southeast of New England while high pressure builds slowly east, extending from the Great Lakes to Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient eases, compared to Wednesday, causing a general 13-18 kt wind from the NW. Speeds may increase from the low end of this range in the morning to high end during the afternoon with a slight backing as an upper level disturbance tracks near northern Florida. Expect a second day of puffy/shifty conditions with 20-25 kt gusts. 

Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time  Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT)  Mean Range  Mean Range
1000   14  12-17  325  305-345
1200   15  13-18  320  300-340 ...still gusty/shifty through the day
1400   16  13-19  310  290-335 ...may see afternoon increase/backing
1600   17  14-20  305  285-330

SEAS: 4-6 foot (1.25-2.0m) moderately choppy seas likely from the coastline to wall of the Gulf Stream. 

TIDAL (Miami Harbor Entrance)
1045 LT high, ebb begins
1705 LT low, flood begins

WEATHER: A similar temperature scheme with mid 50s F (12 C) in the early morning and warming to the upper 60s F (20 C). Again expect sunshine with some high clouds and cumulus development especially over the shoreline. 

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OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY (05 March 2010)
SYNOPSIS: High pressure consolidates near the Ohio Valley and moves towards the Virginias. The pressure gradient may be strong enough to support 15-20 kts from the NW in the morning. Easing to the mid/low teens and veering slightly to the NNW is likely during the afternoon. Conditions may remain moderately puffy/shifty with 20-25 kt gusts possible. 

Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time  Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT)  Mean Range  Mean Range
1000   17  15-20  325  305-345 ...strongest wind possible early
1200   15  13-19  330  310-350
1400   14  12-18  335  315-360
1600   13  11-17  340  320-005

SEAS: Likely remaining 4-6 feet (1.25-2.0m) and moderately choppy from the coastline to wall of the Gulf Stream. 

TIDAL (Miami Harbor Entrance)
1135 LT high, ebb begins
1755 LT low, flood begins

WEATHER: Another cool start in the mid 50s (12 C) but warming a little more to near 70 F (21 C). Lots of sunshine with some fair weather clouds developing.

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OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY (06 March 2010)
SYNOPSIS: Could be more stable day with moderate wind speeds as high pressure builds more firmly into the southeast U.S. Winds in the 13-18 kt range are likely though the day with a slight right trend from the NNW/N to NNE.

Detailed Wind Forecast:
Time  Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)
(LT)  Mean Range  Mean Range
1000   16  14-19  355  335-015
1200   15  13-18  360  340-020 ...slight right trend/easing through day
1400   15  13-18  005  345-025
1600   14  12-17  010  350-030

WEATHER: A warmer high in the low 70s F (22C) under mostly sunny skies.

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OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY (07 March 2010)
SYNOPSIS: High pressure centers itself over the southeast U.S., possibly over north Florida, and then tracks off the coast late in the day. A second day of moderate and fairly stable 13-18 kt winds is likely with a right trend from the NNE to NE. The veering may cause afternoon winds to be slightly stronger and more filled compared to the morning.

WEATHER: Continued mostly sunny with a milder high in the upper

Forecast prepared by Sailing Weather Service, LLC
Learn more at www.sailwx.com and www.windpower.sailwx.com

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