FORECAST SCHEDULE: This is a long-range outlook forecast for Key West
Race Week 2012. An updated forecast for the week will be issued on
Sunday (20th), with daily race week forecasts commencing Monday (21st)
and continue through the last day of racing on Friday (25th).
FEEDBACK: Sailing Weather Service and North Sails encourage feedback.
When able, please send us daily weather notes so we can improve YOUR
forecast at: feedback@sailwx.com. Thanks!
OVERVIEW: With a week still to go before race week commences, it is
still far too early to gain much confidence OR detail as to what
weather/wind conditions are likely to occur during race week. However,
Sailing Weather Service is a leader in the application of long range
ensemble forecasting techniques to regattas and ocean racing.
This outlook has involved review of an ensemble of over 40 forecast
models the last few days. These model change and most certainly struggle
to predict details of the weather beyond 5-7 days. However where there
are consistent patterns between the models beyond the 7 day forecast, we
can make some reasonable assertions regarding the MOST LIKELY – though
not certain – weather that will occur. Even still, details beyond
assessment forecast suggesting below normal, normal, or above normal are
difficult (or actually impossible) to make. Indeed, where there are no
discernible consistent patterns, we can only say that the pattern is
completely unpredictable and that virtually any outcome is possible.
Below, we apply the ensemble pattern recognition techniques as well as
our experience in forecasting the weather in Key West to present some of
the trends and possible conditions for race week.
NOTE: This information is for preliminary planning and guidance purposes
only. You should monitor conditions on your own over the next week and
then reference the latest forecasts once race week starts. REMEMBER that
the US National Weather Service is the sole source of OFFICIAL warnings
and advisories and should be monitored at all times.
DISCUSSION: Much of the eastern US and Gulf of Mexico has experienced an
unusual period of mild weather over the last week or so. This
represented a significant change from the cold outbreak late in December
through the New Year. The cause of this change was development of a
upper level ridge over the eastern US which pushed storms and cold air
north into eastern Canada. This effectively protected the east coast
from cold intrusions from the north, and allowed development of a
persistent high pressure off the east coast – analogous to a Bermuda
High pressure pattern – which supported fresh E/SE trade winds across
the FL Keys.
The breakdown of this ridge pattern is imminent. A cold front moving
through the Mississippi River valley will gradually push east, supported
by a weakening of the upper level ridge pattern. Eventually, this ridge
will be replaced by a tough over the eastern US, allowing more typical
temperature patterns to return as well as bring a return of progressive
weather patterns including cold front and possibly some snow storms or
nor’easters to the Great Lakes and northeastern US, respectively.
This process of change will be well underway over much of the east this
week. However, it may take well into next weekend before the upper level
trough is deep enough to bring change to the Key West. In fact, the cold
front passage may not occur until Sunday in Key West, meaning that right
up until the start of Race Week, trade wind conditions may continue in
Key West. So, just to play with competitors heads, any training or
preparations in Key West prior to the start of race week will likely
take place the waning “warm winter” pattern of the last week to 10 days.
However either by Sunday or almost certainly by Monday, a dramatic
change to a more typical winter pattern is expected, with more
changeable conditions expected day-to-day.
GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR KEY WEST RACE WEEK:
A brief description of expect weather map patterns is provided for each
day of Race Week below. In addition, the probability of occurrence of
various wind speeds and rain is given.
*** KEY TO ASSESSMENTS OF WIND AND WEATHER ***
PREDOMINANT WIND – Light: < 10 kts | MODERATE: 10-15 kts | FRESH: 15-20
kts | STRONG: > 20 kts
WEATHER (RAIN) BASELINE DAILY PROBABILITY – 20%
SUBJECTIVE CONFIDENCE:
- POOR: Models show little or no consistency. At best, the forecast is a
guess
- BELOW AVERAGE: Some consistency, but models changing and timing may be
indefinable. The forecast is an educated guess.
- AVERAGE: Models are consistent within a reasonable range. The forecast
has statistical significance.
- ABOVE AVERAGE: Unusually strong model consistency leads to
expectations of a reliable forecast. Statistically reliable.
- HIGH: Sorry, this is never used on a 7+ day forecast!
**********************************************
MONDAY (21 Jan 2013): Ensemble trends suggest a post-frontal pattern on Monday with new high
pressure building north of the Keys. In this pattern, N’ly winds are
possible, gradually veering with time to the NE. Winds may be Fresh to
strong early in the high pressure build, but easing and unstable winds
will develop as the wind veers right. There may be some lingering
post-frontal showers depending on how quickly the front expected
Saturday or Sunday moves away to the south.
WIND - LIGHT: 20%| MODERATE: 30% | FRESH: 40% | STRONG: 10%
RAIN – 30% (Above normal)
SUBJECTIVE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
**********************************************
TUESDAY (22 Jan 2013): High pressure moves relatively quickly off the US
east coast and the next front appears over the Mississippi River valley
moving toward the gulf coast. A high pressure ridge should hold across
northern FL turning winds from NE to E as weak gradient. This tends to
be a lighter, more unstable wind pattern. The weather is generally good
as cool air from the FL peninsula drains southwest across the Keys.
WIND - LIGHT: 35%| MODERATE: 40% | FRESH: 20% | STRONG: 5%
RAIN – 10% (Normal)
SUBJECTIVE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
**********************************************
WEDNESDAY (23 Jan 2013): High pressure moves further east into the
Atlantic but a ridge hold across central FL. This will promote a return
of trade winds to the waters off the keys. E tending SE wind should be a
bit stronger and more consistent. There is a small chance of some trade
wind showers, especially off the Gulf Stream in the morning.
WIND - LIGHT: 25%| MODERATE: 60% | FRESH: 25% | STRONG: 0%
RAIN – 20% (Below normal)
SUBJECTIVE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
**********************************************
THURSDAY (24 Jan 2013): The pattern starts to fall apart and become less
predictable as the next cold front is expected to push into the eastern
Gulf and toward Key West. There is a spread in the forecasts regarding
the strength of this front ranging from weak to very strong. In
addition, there is no consensus on the timing of weather features, this
leads to little confidence and difficulty in defining the wind regime.
The front is likely to bring some rain with it, so risk of adverse
weather increases.
WIND - LIGHT: 20%| MODERATE: 30% | FRESH: 30% | STRONG: 20%
RAIN – 40% (Above normal)
SUBJECTIVE CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE
**********************************************
FRIDAY (25 Jan 2013): The uncertainty brought by the uncertainty on
Thursday carries over into Friday. If the front does go through, then a
push of stronger N’ly wind can be expected and this is reflected in the
forecast wind range probabilities. However this is an educated guess
based only on past experiences with trends. Above normal on rain
probabilities give the possible proximity of any front or frontal remnants.
WIND - LIGHT: 10%| MODERATE: 30% | FRESH: 40% | STRONG: 20%
RAIN – 30% (Above normal)
SUBJECTIVE CONFIDENCE: POOR
**********************************************
Forecast prepared by Sailing Weather Service, LLC
Learn more at www.sailwx.com
OVERNIGHT SAIL CARE & REPAIR
North Sails will have overnight sail care & repair available during Key West Race Week 2013. North Sails Loft will be located at
2928 N. Roosevelt Blvd, Key West, Florida (in
Key Plaza next door to K-mart).
North Sails Van will be available at all
times downstairs at 201 William Street
for pick up/delivery. Call Yana Meerson at
631-805-4949 or 954-663-4556 for more
information.
NORTH SAILS
|